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Macro Minute

5 key points we’re looking into for the rest of 2021 and into 2022

  1. U.S. Debt Ceiling: May cause short-term volatility but is likely to be resolved by mid-October.
  2. U.S. Economic Growth Expectations: In Q4 and early 2022 economic growth will be a key focus. After a strong economic recovery assisted by supportive monetary and fiscal policy, the next twelve months are likely to be more subdued as comparison periods are more challenging and less supportive factors come to the forefront.
    • Monetary Policy Becoming Less Supportive: The Federal Reserve is likely to announce the tapering of their asset purchases at their November meeting. This sets the stage for monetary policy becoming less supportive.
    • Peak Fiscal Stimulus: The scale of the stimulus in the U.S. is likely to create an unfavorable comparison period for the coming year.
  3. Chinese Property Market Slowdown and Potential Deflationary Pressures: How China handles the China Evergrande debt crisis will have substantial implications for Chinese and global economic growth. The slowdown in the property sector is likely to weigh on commodity prices.
  4. Deal or No Deal: We are following the long and winding road of the infrastructure deals.
  5. Higher Prices and the Impact on Margin: Which segments of the market are most able to pass along higher prices and how is inflation likely to impact corporate margins during 2022.

The Market is Taking Note: Broadening Inflation Pressures Abound

The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE price index) is a comprehensive measure of U.S. inflation, it tracks the change in price of goods and services sold by businesses throughout the economy. We often look at a narrower “core” inflation index that excludes food and energy, but aren’t we all consumers of food and energy? The most recent PCE data showed broad prices rising by 4.3% year over year in August, with July data showing about 85% of tracked items increasing in price over the last three months. While this is not a great surprise owing to our unique current economic circumstances, overtime the percentage of goods experiencing rising prices has grown, and has broadened to include food, housing and clothing. As the economy reopened, supply-chain issues and production problems coupled with demand increases caused surging prices whose permanence was openly debated. These causational conditions will likely fade over time, reducing pressure on prices. But for the time being, markets are not easily digesting that reality. The markets will be looking at how is inflation likely to impact corporate margins during 2022 and potentially rewarding the sectors that are most able to pass along higher prices to the end consumer.

1 Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2021, 10/1/21
2 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, PCE Inflation Dispersion, 9/8/21

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For institutional use only – not for retail distribution. Global X Management Company LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The hypothetical model portfolios discussed herein are provided for illustrative purposes only. This information should not be relied upon for trading purposes or as investment advice, research, or a recommendation by Global X Management LLC regarding (i) any fund, (ii) the use or suitability of the model portfolios or (iii) any security in particular. Financial advisors are responsible for making their own independent judgment as to how to use this information. Target allocations contained herein are subject to change. There is no assurance that the target allocations can or will be achieved, and actual allocations and risk or return profiles of actual portfolio holdings may be significantly different from those shown here.

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risk factors, charges, and expenses of each fund that comprises the model portfolio before investing. For information regarding the funds that comprise the model portfolios, please refer to each funds’ currently available prospectus and statement of additional information. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

The information presented is not definitive investment advice, should not be relied on as such, and should not be viewed as a recommendation by Global X generally or for any purpose outside of Global X’s model portfolios as of the date indicated. It is presented solely to illustrate Global X’s investment process in developing the model portfolios and its analysis and views of the funds that comprise the model portfolios as of the date indicated. The funds presented herein are not representative of all of the funds purchased, sold or held for advisory clients, and it should not be assumed that investment in the funds identified was or will be profitable. Global X’s views of, recommendations with respect to, and investment decisions regarding, securities may vary across Global X’s strategies. Such recommendations are subject to change continually and without notice of any kind and may no longer be true after the date indicated.

The information presented in this presentation has been developed internally and/or obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, Global X does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. Predictions, opinions, and other information contained in this presentation are subject to change continually and without notice of any kind and may no longer be true after the date indicated. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Global X assumes no duty to and does not undertake to update forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties, which change over time. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated.